The Redfin dashboard says Blaine sold at a $648K median in February 2026, down 1.8% from a year earlier, with homes sitting 94 days on average. Homes.com, drawing from the same NWMLS feed, shows an average list price of about $1.14M. Both numbers are correct. Neither describes a market a buyer can actually shop in.
The useful question is not "what is Blaine worth." It is "which Blaine." The peninsula and the mainland trade on different clocks, different carrying costs, and different supply curves, and the citywide median averages them into a number that fits nowhere.
The split runs at the causeway
Cross onto Semiahmoo Spit and you are in a submarket governed by the Semiahmoo Resort Association, a homeowner body that oversees 27 distinct neighborhoods with a nine-member elected board plus one seat appointed by Resort Properties. Design standards, dues, and shared amenities move together. Stay on the mainland and East Blaine, and you are in a build-out zone with roughly 1,442 planned single- and multifamily homes queued between H Street Road and the Canadian border.
Those are two different products. Blending them into one median is like averaging a marina slip with a subdivision lot and calling it a boat.
| Metric | Semiahmoo peninsula (last 6 mo., SFH) | Blaine citywide (Feb 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Median sold price | $989,500 | $648,000 |
| Median size | 2,574 sq ft | not reported |
| Median $/sq ft | $384 | $346 |
| Active single-family listings | 27 | ~300 across the ZIP |
| HOA / master association | Yes, SRA governs 27 neighborhoods | Varies; many none |
The peninsula's per-foot number sits about 11% above the citywide figure, and its dollar median is roughly 53% higher. A buyer who reads the $648K headline and expects a peninsula home in that range will spend three weekends confirming the gap by hand.
What the peninsula is actually selling
Semiahmoo homes are priced against amenity access and governance, not just square footage. The specifics that matter during due diligence:
- Two golf courses in the ownership orbit: the Arnold Palmer-designed Semiahmoo Golf and Country Club and Loomis Trail.
- A working marina, restored spa, and hotel operations at Semiahmoo Resort, Golf & Spa on the spit.
- Sub-pockets with distinct rules and dues. Muirfield is a ten-home gated enclave inside the community. Stonehaven backs the seventh fairway. Country Club Villas sit inside the St. Andrews gate. Woodberry is a smaller gated build-out.
- A live City of Blaine planning file. A PUD amendment application accepted August 28, 2024 is redistributing planned parking and residential units across five parcels totaling just under 18 acres on Semiahmoo Spit. A separate Semiahmoo Park application was accepted as procedurally complete on May 18, 2026. Both are worth pulling from the City of Blaine planning page before writing an offer, because the future site plan affects sightlines, parking, and unit counts around several existing addresses.
Peninsula buyers are underwriting a governance regime, not just a house. That is the mechanism the citywide median cannot see.
East Blaine is a supply story, not a price story
The mainland side is doing something the peninsula is not: absorbing new inventory at scale. Development already permitted or under construction includes:
- Grandis Pond, roughly 1,000 homes over two decades along H Street Road.
- Ridge at Harbor Hills, where more than a dozen homes were occupied by 2024 and completion is targeted for 2025.
- East Harbor Hills, potentially including affordable units, with completion possible by 2030.
- Lincoln Mews, 53 townhomes in East Blaine expected by 2026.
- Semiahmoo Highlands, a 480-unit plan that began with a first phase of 65 units.
- Horizon at Semiahmoo, acquired for $14.3 million with 71 serviced lots plus additional undeveloped parcels.
That pipeline is why the mainland resale story looks softer than the peninsula's. New construction sets a ceiling on what a nearby resale can ask, and it competes for the same buyer who is not tied to a fairway view. When Salish Current reported on Blaine's building surge, city council member Richard May described a near-zero vacancy rate alongside the buildout, meaning demand is real but the sequencing of new deliveries will keep resale pricing honest through the rest of the decade.
For a mainland seller, the comp set is not the peninsula. It is the spec home three blocks over with a builder incentive attached.
How to read 94 days on market
In February 2026, average time on market ran 94 days, up from 58 a year earlier. Homes sold about 1% below list on average, and there were 13 recorded sales that month. Those numbers describe a market where the median seller is waiting a full quarter and giving up a small but real concession.
That average hides a wider distribution once you split by pocket. Two anchor transactions from spring 2026 tell the story:
8300 Semiahmoo Dr closed April 9, 2026 at $1,100,000 against a $1,190,000 list, 8% under list after 169 days on market. 7631 Parkland Dr closed April 2, 2026 at $415,000, a smaller mainland home moving in a very different price band.
A 169-day marketing period at the top of the peninsula range is not distress. It is the normal clearing time for a house priced against a thin buyer pool, where a small number of decision-makers can afford the ticket and each one wants a specific view, fairway, or gate. Buyers in that band have room to ask. Sellers in that band should price for patience.
On the mainland, 94 days is closer to a friction number: appraisals, inspection re-trades, and the drag of shopping against active new construction on adjacent parcels.
Where the negotiation window actually opens
The current market gives buyers usable leverage in three specific places.
The first is peninsula listings sitting past 90 days. The average 8% concession on 8300 Semiahmoo Dr is not a rule, but it is a data point. Any peninsula home that has been active longer than the neighborhood's 6-month median absorption cycle is a candidate for a written offer below list, particularly if the SRA dues, roof age, or view line have any complication attached.
The second is mainland resales priced within striking distance of new construction. If a builder in Grandis Pond, Semiahmoo Highlands, or the Ridge is offering rate buydowns or closing credits, a nearby resale seller has to answer that offer indirectly. The buyer's leverage is the incentive sheet at the sales trailer.
The third is anything with unresolved planning exposure near the spit. With the PUD amendment file still moving through Blaine's Community Development Services Department, buyers of adjacent parcels can reasonably ask sellers for extended feasibility periods to review the final site plan before removing contingencies. That is a request most sellers will grant in a 94-day-DOM market.
The border variable, sized honestly
Blaine's price story is often told through the Canadian border. The Cascade Gateway data dashboard, which tracks the four land ports between Whatcom County and the Lower Mainland, shows 2026 crossing volumes running below both 2024 and 2025. Peace Arch average wait times are hovering around an hour on typical afternoons, with the CBP dashboard reporting a 64-minute average against a 135-minute current wait on August 2, 2026.
For a buyer, the practical read is narrow. Cross-border demand is not the tailwind it was in 2021 when the Horizon at Semiahmoo acquisition was pitched partly on a reopening thesis. If a seller's pricing rationale rests on future Canadian demand, that argument is weaker in 2026 than it was three years ago. Price to the buyers who are actually in the room.
FAQ
Is Blaine a buyer's market or a seller's market right now? It is both, depending on which side of the causeway you shop. The mainland resale market shows real buyer leverage against new construction competition. The peninsula shows patience on both sides: long marketing periods, occasional meaningful concessions on aged listings, and firm pricing on fresh ones.
How much are Semiahmoo HOA obligations, and how should they factor into an offer? The Semiahmoo Resort Association governs 27 neighborhoods and passes an annual budget through a community vote at the fall Annual General Meeting. Individual neighborhood dues and any sub-association assessments sit on top of that. Ask for the current resale certificate, the last two years of SRA budgets, and any pending special assessments before your inspection contingency expires.
Does the East Blaine construction pipeline mean I should wait to buy? Not necessarily. Grandis Pond alone is a two-decade build-out, and Blaine's vacancy rate has been described by city officials as near zero. Waiting for the supply wave to fully arrive is a long horizon. The more useful move is to shop the current resale inventory with the builder incentive sheets in hand.
Are the peninsula and the mainland comparable at all for appraisal purposes? Only within their own submarkets. A peninsula appraisal will lean on peninsula comps, often within the same sub-pocket. A mainland appraisal will lean on nearby resale and, where the appraiser deems it defensible, new construction adjusted for concessions. Cross-submarket comps rarely hold up.
If you are weighing an offer on Semiahmoo Spit or an East Blaine resale and want a second read on where the price should actually sit given the current data, Donita Dickinson and the team advise buyers and sellers across Whatcom County with a calm, discreet process and a focus on the specific numbers behind the listing. Reach out for a free home valuation or a private conversation about your next move.
